Saturday, August 30, 2008

If I were the President of Georgia...

If I were a principled Saakashvili, I would stop accepting all financial and material handouts from the US by turning the US warships out of Batumi and sending Cheney's Gulfstream back to Wyoming where it belongs. Then, I'd head to Baku, and instead of transit payments, I'd demand from Aliyev a percentage of the oil being sent over my country. Then, I'd contract with the Chinese, Armenians, and Iranians to improve the existing pipeline between Tbilisi and Yerevan and Yerevan and Tabriz and Tabriz and Abadan. Then, I'd start shipping oil to the Chinese via the Iranians in exchange for a steady supply of Iranian natural gas and Chinese electronics so I no longer have to kiss Russian ass to keep my people warm and talking on their cell phones.

Then, I'd persuade the Armenians and Iranians to dramatically improve the highways and railways linking Abadan, Tabriz, Yerevan and Batumi. I'd sell the project to the Iranians as a hedge against a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and to the Armenians as a hedge against further Turkish/Azerbaijan blockades (though the Turks could probably be persuaded to kick in financially if if I also convinced them that this would be a way for them to circumvent and isolate the Kurds economically on their southern flank). I'd have the Kuwaitis, Saudis, and Emiratis finance the entire thing since Iran, Armenia and Georgia would dramatically cut the distance and risk of having to transport goods through the Strait of Hormuz, around the Arabian peninsula, through the Sinai Penninsula and Bosphorus, and to Ukraine onwards.

This would imply the port in Batumi would have to be enlarged to allow intracoastal shipping to all points west on the Black Sea, and there would still be the risk of the Russian Black Sea naval fleet. Nonetheless, a Russian blockade of the Black Sea would be extremely risky move by the Kremlin since it could actually bring into the conflict existing members of NATO like Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania. In addition, the US is much more inclined to fight wars over keeping international shipping lanes clear since it has an obvious self-interest at stake.

In short, Georgia can only defeat Russian military and economic supremacy by turning a deaf ear to the Americans and going to bed with the Iranians, Arabs, Turks, and Armenians to develop along a north-south axis as opposed to an east-west one. It's a motley bunch I know, but they're all greedy enough and distrusting of each other to make them the perfect allies. Quite frankly, I don't think you could ask for a more predictable lot for your energy needs and unfettered access to cheap Chinese goods.

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